How to Decide Whether to Push On or Wait Out Bad Conditions on the Water
My best friend Michael Whalen and I faced this exact decision more than once during our five-day paddleboard circumnavigation of Lake Tahoe, standing on rocks at Emerald Bay, waiting inside Cave Rock Marina, weighing whether to push on toward Banzai Rock as swell built near Sand Harbor. Here's what actually went into those decisions, and what factors I'd tell anyone to weigh when facing the same call.
Why This Decision Is Harder Than It Sounds
On paper, deciding whether to push through deteriorating conditions or wait them out sounds straightforward, assess the risk, make the safe choice. In practice, the decision gets complicated by real pressures, a schedule that needs certain mileage covered, daylight that's limited, physical fatigue that makes waiting feel worse than pushing, and simple impatience after already investing effort into getting as far as you have. Every one of those pressures pushed us toward pushing on at different points during our trip, and recognizing that pull for what it was mattered as much as any technical assessment of the water itself.
What Actually Determined Our Decision at Emerald Bay
Facing a headwind that had stopped our forward progress entirely at the mouth of Emerald Bay on day one, the decision to wait was straightforward, we genuinely weren't making progress, so continuing to fight it made no sense regardless of any time pressure. We waited roughly twenty minutes, watched the wind ease to something manageable, and continued. That situation offered a clear signal, zero forward progress, which made the choice easier than some of our later decisions.
What Made the Cave Rock Decision More Complicated
By day four, forced into Cave Rock Marina by hard wind, the decision was murkier. The wind itself dropped after about an hour, but the swell it had built kept going, meaning conditions were technically improving in one respect while remaining difficult in another. We debated whether to wait longer for full calm or push through workable-but-uncomfortable conditions, ultimately deciding to continue seated the rest of the way to Zephyr Cove rather than waiting indefinitely for perfect water that might not arrive before dark.
The Factors Worth Weighing Every Time
Is the situation actively getting worse, holding steady, or improving, even slowly. Is there a safe, comfortable place to wait if you choose to, or does waiting itself carry its own risks. How much daylight and schedule flexibility do you actually have if you choose to wait longer than planned. And critically, does everyone in your group genuinely agree with the decision, or is someone deferring to social pressure rather than voicing real concern. We found that explicitly asking each other how we felt, rather than assuming agreement, caught moments where one of us was more hesitant than the other let on.
Why Waiting Almost Always Costs Less Than It Feels Like It Does
Every time we chose to wait, whether twenty minutes at Emerald Bay or a full hour at Cave Rock, it felt like a bigger cost in the moment than it turned out to be looking back at our overall five-day timeline. An hour lost to waiting rarely changes whether you finish a multi-day trip on schedule. Pushing into conditions that turn out to be genuinely dangerous can end the trip entirely, or worse. That asymmetry, small cost to wait versus potentially large cost to push through bad judgment, is worth remembering when the pressure to keep moving feels strongest.
When Pushing On Actually Made Sense for Us
Not every situation called for waiting. Once we'd assessed the swell near Sand Harbor as difficult but manageable with seated paddling, continuing made more sense than trying to wait out conditions that showed no clear sign of improving soon and that we had a real technique, sitting down, to handle safely. The decision to push wasn't reckless, it was based on a specific assessment that our skills and the actual conditions matched up reasonably well, even though the crossing remained demanding.
What I'd Tell Someone Facing This Decision Alone Versus With a Partner
Paddling with Michael changed how we approached every one of these decisions compared to how I might have handled the same situations solo. Having a second perspective, even when we ultimately agreed on the call, caught nuances in the conditions that a single decision-maker might miss under the pressure of the moment. If you're planning to attempt a similar route alone, build in extra conservatism specifically to compensate for not having that second set of eyes, since the value of a partner's perspective becomes clearest in exactly these ambiguous, high-stakes moments.
How Past Decisions Shaped Later Ones
Our decision-making got faster and more confident as the trip progressed, not because the decisions became objectively easier, but because we'd built a track record of decisions that had worked out reasonably well. That accumulated confidence is worth accounting for in your own planning, early decisions on a multi-day trip may take longer and feel harder simply because you haven't yet built trust in your own judgment under these specific conditions.
What a Brand Sponsor Should Understand About This Decision-Making
For a brand watching from outside this kind of trip, it's worth understanding that safety-first decision-making sometimes means the trip doesn't unfold according to the original content plan. A brand that pressures a creator to push through conditions purely for the sake of a shooting schedule is putting both safety and, ultimately, the quality of the resulting content at risk. The best partnerships I've had are with brands who trust the on-the-ground judgment of the people actually facing these decisions rather than second-guessing them from a distance.
The Bottom Line on This Decision
There's no universal formula, but the questions worth asking every time are consistent, is the situation improving or worsening, is there a safe place to wait, and does everyone genuinely agree with the call. Answer those honestly each time, and the specific decision tends to become clearer than it feels in the anxious middle of actually facing it, especially once you've built a track record of decisions that worked out reasonably well across the earlier days of your own trip.
Before You Close This Tab
What factors should go into your own decision to keep paddling through deteriorating conditions versus pulling off to wait, based on what actually matters to you?
Have you noticed schedule pressure or impatience pushing you toward a riskier decision than the conditions actually warranted?
How would you check in with a paddling partner to make sure everyone genuinely agrees with a push-or-wait decision?
What would your own threshold be for deciding conditions have improved enough to continue safely?
Dalton Johnson is a photographer, filmmaker, and brand storyteller based in South Lake Tahoe, California. Over the past decade he has worked with brands including Patagonia, GoPro, Arc'teryx, Four Seasons, Nike, Rivian, and Ford Bronco across all seven continents. He is the creator of the Follow The Journey distribution framework, which has produced over one million organic views per 30-day cycle without paid media. His work includes two published books, an award-winning documentary that aired on PBS, and more than fifty commercial spots directed. He runs Stories by Dalton on Substack, read by more than 34,000 subscribers.